NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Top Teams to Fade

Before every new NFL season I try and segregate a handful of teams that I plan to “fade,” or go against, for the upcoming season. Isolating the worst teams in the NFL can be a great strategy to win Survivor Pools, and it has led me to a nice deal of success in the past.

The easiest place to start is the NFL futures market for odds to win the Super Bowl. While the bookies odds aren’t always spot on, these Super Bowl futures are a good benchmark for which to gauge possible fade teams. For this article I will look at the Bottom 6 teams on the futures odds and try to determine which of these teams, if any, I want to fade this season. All odds come from Bovada.lv.

Oakland Raiders – 66/1

If you bet on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl and they get the job done, you win $66 for each dollar wagered. This is the lowest odds for the teams we will look at today.

I loved the way QB Derek Carr played last season. His numbers didn’t stand out, but he looked like a pro and showed a lot of composure in the pocket. He also has some nice young playmakers around him. I would take him over several young QBs in the league!

Oakland is a team on the rise but will still be a team to fade in certain spots. However, their home slate is where their toughest games are, as indicated by their .574 home strength of schedule, which is the second hardest in the league. Their road schedule is much easier to navigate (for Survivor Pools I try to go against bad teams on the road as much as possible). So with the improvements this team should show on the field and their home-heavy schedule this team will be tougher than most on this list to use as a solid fade this season.

Cleveland Browns – 75/1

Cleveland has an underrated defense. They were Top 10 in the league last season for points allowed. Their offense, of course, will still probably stink once again. This team looks to start Josh McCown under center. McCown is a career journeyman and is probably not any better than Brian Hoyer, last year’s starter. However, at least he has some experience, which some of the other teams you will see on this list are lacking at the QB spot. This team keeps experimenting with the offense in hopes that things will improve, but you have to figure we will see Johnny Manziel at some point this season.

I hate to use a good defensive team as a fade team, but the Browns have the No. 9 hardest schedule in the league this year based on last year’s winning percentages. They have their easiest portion of the schedule to start off the season at New York Jets and hosting Tennessee and Oakland during the first three weeks. But then they play their next 13 games against teams that all could be in playoff contention.

This team could be improved on the field and it might not show on their record because of this tough schedule. And it’s because of that schedule that I will be looking to fade the Browns quite a bit this season. And that Jets game Week 1 may be a good spot because I think New York will be better this season and the Browns will be breaking in a new QB (Week 1 is already looking like one of the hardest weeks of the season to notch a winning Survivor Pool pick). This is a team I will watch closely in preseason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 100/1

This team, of course, drafted QB Jameis Winston from Florida State No. 1 in the draft in April. I’m not sure if Winston will be a good pro or not, but one thing I am pretty sure of is that he will be thrown into the fire quickly and that he will struggle during his rookie season. For that reason alone this will be a team to fade, especially early in the season.

One red flag for fading this team is that it has one of the easiest schedules in the league this season. They play in a division where every game is winnable, and the rest of the schedule sets up for them nicely if they can build chemistry as a team in a hurry. This team is also well-coached by Lovie Smith.

I will be looking to fade this team early in the season, and in particular Week 2 at the Saints and Week 3 at the Texans look particularly promising. This team could improve, however, as the season wears on and Winston builds some confidence.

Washington Redskins – 100/1

Anyone else get the idea that the Robert Griffin III experiment should have ended a year or two ago? This team will probably stink again, and they are in an incredibly tough division. Griffin doesn’t seem to have any of the confidence or swagger left that we saw when he was a rookie. This team has a lousy defense, no leadership and is just a mess. This is definitely a team I will be looking to fade this season.

They do have a decently easy schedule this upcoming season, however, and face a slate with a winning percentage of just .479 last year. However, three of their first four road games are at home, and their road contests early in the season are against less-than-inspiring opponents. The schedule is back-loaded this year, and I will be looking to fade the Redskins more later in the season, assuming I last that long in my pool. This is a team that will probably finish the season on a down note as the schedule gets tougher and Griffin’s confidence is further shaken.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 200/1

I don’t really agree the Jaguars should be longest shots on the board, along the Titans, this season. Of course this team isn’t going to win the Super Bowl, but there is reason to be optimistic that they can improve this season despite a pretty lousy offseason that included seeing their No. 1 pick go down with a season-ending injury.

This team has a QB entering his second year in Blake Bortles, who should improve and could start to show some real progress. After years of high draft picks this team has some very nice young talent, and it just seems like a matter of time before this team starts to see improvement in some areas. They have a defensive-minded head coach in his third year, and it’s time to show the fans something this season or else his seat might start getting very hot. They also have one of the easier schedules in the league. I think this team will improve as the season wears on, but there are a couple juicy spots to fade them early in the season with a Week 3 visit to New England (whether Brady plays or not) and a Week 4 visit to Indianapolis.

Tennessee Titans – 200/1

Another squad here looking to break in a top-ranked quarterback prospect, this time Marcus Mariota of Oregon, the No. 2 pick in the draft this year. Like Winston, Mariota is very raw and should make plenty of mistakes his rookie season assuming he starts in Week 1.

I think the Titans will be a great team to fade this season. Mariota should struggle mightily, and he doesn’t have a ton of weapons to work with in the first place. This team, however, has a very easy schedule and plays four of their first six games at home. Their two road games during that stretch, Weeks 1 and 2, are against the Bucs and Browns, respectively, two other teams on this list. The only time you can really fade this team early in the season is when they host the Colts Week 3, but there are sure to be better options out there than wasting the Colts in a road contest.

If I make it far in my pool I will definitely look to fade the Titans later in the season, but they don’t have any games that meet my criteria until later in the year unless Mariota just looks horrible early season. That might be enough for me to use them as a fade before he gets his footing in the league.