Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Line Report

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After Week 1’s craziness, things went back to normal in Week 2 and most of the big favorites took care of business. Some NFL Survivor Pool players had to sweat out results, however. The Saints needed some late-game heroics to get by a Browns team that is obviously much improved from their 0-16 season last year.

The biggest upset of the day was the Steelers losing at home to the Chiefs. If you read my Opening Line Report last week, you might remember that I flirted with taking the Steelers on one of my Week 2 Survivor Pool cards. But after more research and some self-reflection I decided against that and went with what I thought was the safest pick, the Los Angeles Rams. Of course, the Steelers lost in a shootout, and the Rams pitched a shutout in their home opener. So, I made the right decision there. It has been one of the easiest couple weeks of a Survivor Pool season that I can remember. I had the Ravens in Week 1, and both my picks the first two weeks have won big without any issues. I know it won’t be this easy for long.

This week does, however, look easy. There is one massive favorite on the opening lines, and this looks about as safe as a play can be for Survivor Pool players. Minnesota is favored by 17 at home against the Buffalo Bills, and this will be one of the largest spreads of the entire NFL season. I would never take a team like this when straight betting. I will almost always take the points when the bookies are offering this many. Even if the game is a blowout, you can still cover the spread. But for NFL Survivor Pool purposes, it doesn’t get much better than a favorite that is laying almost 20 points in an NFL game!

It’s still early in the season, so most players that are still alive probably have the Vikings available to use in their pool. However, if the Vikings aren’t available then things get a bit trickier. There are a lot of short lines this week, and many spreads at three points. In my research I have found that three-point favorites win at a rate slightly higher than a coin flip. That’s dangerous sledding. There are some decent higher-priced favorites on the board, though. Here, as we do every week, we will look at the biggest favorites on the board in order to whittle down the matchups into a few teams that are playable for Survivor Pools. Then I will normally do further research in order to come up with my official picks. But…spoiler alert!… I will be picking the Vikings this week on all available cards.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3 Opening Line Report:

Philadelphia -6 vs. Indianapolis: The Super Bowl hangover is real, folks! The Eagles could easily be 0-2. In Week 1 they nearly lost to Atlanta, and it was only the Falcons red zone ineptitude that led to the Eagles win. Then they lost to the Buccaneers on Sunday. Andrew Luck is back and in fine form, and if he can stay healthy all season he can lead this Colts team to 10 wins easy. This is probably the best young QB in football. With Luck playing well and the Eagles off to a slow start, it’s hard to really consider a play on Philly here. And it looks likely that Eagles QB Carson Wentz returns this week. Who knows how rusty he will be after so much time away from the field. Too many questions for this matchup.

Jacksonville -6.5 vs. Tennessee: This game is off the board at many sportsbooks since Titans QB Marcus Mariota and Jags RB Leonard Fournette are both questionable. Whether one or both of these guys play or not, I do think the Jags are a solid play here. Both squads were playoff teams last year, but the Titans look like they have taken a step back (they barely squeaked into the postseason last season), while the Jags look like a legit Super Bowl contender, especially after beating the Patriots on Sunday and making it look easy. The fact that this game is a divisional matchup is one strike against the favorite, and also this may be a letdown spot after the big win against New England. However, I think the Jags look like a 12- or 13-win team, so they won’t lose many games this season as long as everyone stays healthy.

Baltimore -5 vs. Denver: This is a battle of good-but-not-great teams. Denver has some issues here with the travel and the start time, but this should be a close game and this spread looks a little to high in my mind. I think this will likely be a field goal game either way, and these teams have too many question marks for me to mess with either in what looks like an even matchup early in the season. I used the Ravens in Week 1, so they are out of consideration for me, but I would stay away from this matchup anyways even if that wasn’t the case.

Houston -6 vs. New York Giants: Houston has started off the new season 0-2. They had a tough matchup against New England in Week 1 and then were upset in Week 2 as a small favorite at Tennessee. QB Deshaun Watson has had a slow start to the season coming back from injury, and this team just hasn’t looked as good as I expected coming into the season. I am sure they will start playing well at some point as I feel this team is a playoff contender. If they do have aspirations of making the postseason, then this Week 3 matchup, the home opener, is basically a must-win game. I think that they will get the job done Sunday.

Minnesota -17 vs. Buffalo: This Bills team is obviously the worst team in the NFL this season. Many Survivor Pool players will fade this team every week. I won’t be doing that since I think they are good enough to win a few games this season. But the wins will be few and far between. I would like this matchup anyways, but I like it even more after the Vikings recorded a tie on Sunday in their game with Green Bay. They will be anxious to get back on track this Sunday, and they have the perfect opponent with which to do that. Don’t overthink things. Don’t save good teams for later in the season. If you have the Vikings available in Week 3, use them on all your Survivor Pool cards.

Kansas City -6.5 vs. San Francisco: The Chiefs had one of the toughest season-opening schedules in 2018 with two road games against teams favored to win their respective divisions. They won both and looked great doing it. This team looks like the best offensive squad in the NFL, and they look unstoppable with Patrick Mahomes slinging the ball all over the field. This team is a serious Super Bowl contender. But the defense looks shaky, and that may become a problem moving forward. This is their home opener, and the crowd will be pumped. However, the Niners are improved as well. They have looked mediocre through two games, but this is a team that will probably get better every week during the season. Kansas City will likely win here, but I think there are much better matchups to focus on for Survivor Pools in Week 3. And, remember that the Chiefs have started off hot several times in recent years only to be inconsistent later in the season.

LA Rams -7 vs. LA Chargers: The Rams look like one of, if not the, best teams in the NFC. They have been dominant in their first two games. I used them in Week 2 vs. Arizona, so I am done with them for the season. Once again, I do think there are better matchups on the board for Week 3. The Chargers have always been one of those teams that can play like a Super Bowl contender one week and then look like the worst team in the NFL the next. For that reason, I normally try to stay away from using them, on or against, in Survivor Pools until later in the season when my options are limited.

Chicago -4 at Arizona: The Cardinals will be a popular fade team this season. But I’m not trusting my Survivor Pool life on a team like the Bears, coming in on a short week no less, on the road against any opponent. Easy pass for me.

New England -6 vs. Detroit: I’m not too worried about the Patriots loss to the Jags on Sunday. Remember last season when they got blown out at home vs. the Chiefs and everyone said they were done? This is still one of the best teams in the NFL. And they still have the best QB in the game and the best coach. However, there will be better spots to use this team down the line at home and against a lesser opponent.