We are getting to the point in the season where the oddsmakers know what NFL teams are, and most of the big favorites are covering every week. We haven’t had many big upsets in a few weeks. So things have been good for NFL Survivor Pool players. On Monday Night Football, the Titans upset the Cowboys in Dallas, and that result probably knocked out some Survivor Pool players in both original and second-chance pools. But there were a lot of blowouts, and the biggest favorites took care of business.
This week there are just some massive favorites on the NFL odds board. There are four double-digit favorites this week and also the biggest favorite on the board this NFL season. However, the last biggest favorite on the board (Minnesota vs. Buffalo Week 3) lost and became the largest NFL favorite to lose in a couple decades. Could we see this happen twice in one season?
As I do every week, I will go down the list of biggest favorites on the board and then give my three best recommendations at the end of the article. I normally cover favorites of 3.5 points or more. Lots of matchups to cover this week, so let’s get right into it.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Line Report
Pittsburgh -4.5 vs. Carolina: I normally stay away from Thursday Night Football games. The short week of preparation makes it tough on both teams. But these TNF games normally favor the home team. However, I don’t like the Steelers this week at all. I think either team can win this one, and both teams have been playing excellent football recently. This will be a great game and really fun to watch, but I have no interest from a Survivor Pool perspective.
NY Jets -7.5 vs. Buffalo: Don’t know how you can trust your Survivor Pool life on a rookie quarterback and a team that has lost three straight games. But Buffalo is horrible. Nathan Peterman threatens to throw a pick-six every time he drops back to pass. That this guy is starting on an NFL team and Colin Kaepernick is out of a job is baffling. The Bills picked up Mark Sanchez off the streets last week, and I assume he is possibly in the mix to start this week. He probably gives the Bills a better chance to win. Since options are getting limited for Survivor Pool players, some might consider using the Jets this week. I would try to find a better team, even at a smaller spread, as the Jets are a team I would be looking to pick Weeks 15-17 when there are really limited options.
Atlanta -4.5 at Cleveland: The Falcons seem to be finally getting their act together and have reeled off three straight wins, although the quality of opponents are questionable. I have already used the Falcons in my second-chance pool (vs. the Giants two weeks ago). But I wouldn’t be a big fan of them anyways here in Week 10. The Browns have had a real tough schedule lately and they are probably due for a win here sometime soon, and it’s not like this would be a monumental upset or something. If the Falcons were at home, this pick would be much more attractive. But I think this game will be close in Cleveland.
New Orleans -5 at Cincinnati: The Bengals will be without WR A.J. Green in this one, and that hurts their offense immensely. Even though they won last time out and are coming off a bye, this team seems to be on the decline after a hot start. But New Orleans is coming off their huge win vs. the Rams, and this could be a letdown spot. Almost everyone has used New Orleans at this point of the season, but I think there are better spots anyways than using this team on the road in what could be a flat spot.
New England -6.5 at Tennessee: Wow, I was very impressed with the Titans play on Monday Night Football. This team plays physical football, and after that performance we don’t think that they will be intimidated by the Patriots here on Sunday. But New England has won seven straight games in this series, and they will probably get No. 8 here. I have used the Pats already, but I would probably look elsewhere for my Week 10 Survivor Pool pick even if I hadn’t.
Green Bay -10 vs. Miami: Yuck. I can’t believe that the Packers are a double-digit favorite over anyone right now. I mean, they held their own at the Rams and Patriots the last two weeks. Green Bay, however, is a very questionable team, and I think this spread is way out of whack. The bookies lost their butts this week in one of the worst results for Las Vegas sportsbooks ever for NFL betting. Maybe this is just a result of that because the sportsbooks know the public bettors will take the Packers no matter what the number. Can Green Bay blow the Dolphins out on Sunday? Of course, if they play a strong game. But this one has a better chance to be close, in my opinion, and I will be betting on the underdog here. I hate this matchup for Survivor Pools.
Chicago -6.5 vs. Detroit: I think the Bears are the better team. But this is a divisional matchup, and Chicago definitely isn’t as good as they looked on Sunday. The Bills flattered them. The Lions have won three straight meetings and they have a strong history in this series. I am not a fan of this matchup for Survivor Pools.
Kansas City -16.5 vs. Arizona: The Chiefs have been covering any number that the bookies throw at them, and they are tied with the Vikings team that lost Week 3 to the Bills as the biggest favorite in the NFL this season. This line was around 17 Monday but has settled in at 16.5. There is a reason that number is important because it encourages bets on the Chiefs by public bettors, but if it gets back to 17 then the sharp bettors will be all over the points. I would never bet a favorite of this many points. I did take the Chiefs on one of my available Survivor Pool cards but do think that they may be looking ahead a bit to the Rams matchup next week in Mexico City as that is the biggest game of the NFL season.
LA Chargers -10 at Oakland: I will admit right away that I used the Chargers on my second Survivor Pool card this week. I would have taken the Chiefs on both if available, but I had already used them in one spot. The Chargers are more consistent this season than they have been in year’s past. Too bad they are in the same division as Kansas City, who is a bit better and already has the first half of the tiebreaker for the division crown. But this team is a Super Bowl contender, and the Raiders are one of the worst teams we have seen the last few years. It’s like they aren’t even trying to win right now. This goes against my normal Survivor Pool rules to avoid division matchups and road teams. But this is the second-best pick on the board by a mile this week.
LA Rams -10 vs. Seattle: You have to figure that the Rams will bounce back after their first loss of the season against the Saints on Sunday. But overall this team hasn’t been playing as well recently as they started the season. Seattle is playing some very strong football this season, and these NFC West matchups are always hard-fought. As most, I have used the Rams already. So, I don’t have to worry about this matchup. But even if they were available, I would probably avoid this game altogether.
Philadelphia -6.5 vs. Dallas: I think the Cowboys might fall into their usual routine of playing well as an underdog and failing as a favorite. We saw on Monday Night Football how they underwhelmed as a large favorite. We think the opposite might happen here as we think this will be a hard-fought, close game, and I have my money on Dallas this week plus the points.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Top 3 Picks:
No. 1 Kansas City
No. 2 LA Chargers
No. 3 NY Jets