NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Common Mistakes by New Players

Doing anything well requires practice, and NFL Survivor Pools are no different. It’s going to be tough for a new Survivor Pool player to come in and excel in his or her first time at it. Therefore, we have put together a list of common mistakes to avoid if you are new to Survivor Pools. This will help get you up to speed quickly and help you to be competitive in your pool.

Common Mistakes for Survivor Pool Picks:

10. Not Playing

This one is simple. You can’t win if you don’t play. I guess you can argue that you would be saving money by not playing, but if that is your opinion then why would you be reading this article?! Not only do I play in at least one Survivor Pool each NFL season, but I play multiple tickets in those pools I do sign up for. I am an avid NFL handicapper and like my chances against the Las Vegas bookies, but in Survivor Pools you are playing against a pool comprised mainly of people who have no idea what they are doing and that you can expect to probably lose their entry fee. Playing against these types of individuals gives me a bigger edge than playing against Las Vegas sportsbooks, and over the course of time that edge will pay out as I score Survivor Pool wins or at least split a share of the prize pot.

9. Saving Teams

Some new Survivor Pool players use a strategy to save teams for down the road so they will have a good stable of teams available to them later in the season. Well, you won’t have those good teams available if you are knocked out of your pool! Always use the team you have available that you think will advance you in the pool and get you to the next week. While I do look at later schedules in my Survivor Pool to help me determine the best matchup to pick if I am 50 percent between two different teams, I always go with the team I think will give me the best chance to advance in the pool.

8. Using Road Teams too Early

If you advance far in your Survivor Pool, using road teams for your weekly picks will be inevitable. However, early in the season you have enough teams at your disposal where you should not even be looking at road teams. I probably don’t even consider road teams until after Week 10 of the NFL season. Of course, there are road teams that win every week in the NFL, but home-field advantage is huge in pro football (this is why oddsmakers give a huge edge to home teams when setting the betting odds), and picking from the available pool of home teams will give you the best chance to advance in your pool.

7. Playing Divisional Matchups or Rivalry Games

Redskins vs. Cowboys. Bears vs. Packers. Seahawks vs. 49ers. These are all great rivalries for a reason. That’s because the underdog has a chance to win the game any time these teams meet up. Last season the Redskins were huge underdogs at the Cowboys in Week 8. They ended up pulling a 20-17 overtime upset and played one of their best games of the season. Rivalries bring out the best in the underdog, and I try and avoid using these games as much as possible. Although this is not as crucial as trying to isolate the best home teams to use for your weekly picks, avoiding rivalries is best advised when there are other, better matchups available.

6. Sending Picks in Too Early

Every Survivor Pool has a deadline. Use this deadline to your advantage. There is no reason to send your picks in first thing Tuesday morning. Injuries can change the outlook of any matchup during the week, and NFL coaches are notorious for using the injury report to manipulate opponents. Later in the week injury situations become clearer as you can find out which players have kept regular practice schedules during the week and which ones are likely in or out for the matchup you want to use for the week. There is no penalty for sending picks in at the last possible moment, and this can give you an edge over other players that aren’t as cognizant of the injury report.

5. Missing the Deadline

While you want to wait to submit your picks and let the injury list work for you and not against you, you also want to make sure you never miss the deadline to submit picks. Most pools will not give you an inch of leeway if you miss your deadline (and you don’t want them to as several opposing players each season will probably be eliminated from your pool by missing the deadline). If your pool deadline is Saturday morning by noon and you have obligations at that time make sure you send your picks in when you are able to because being knocked out by missing the deadline is one of the worst ways to be eliminated from a Survivor Pool!

4. Using your Favorite Team Early

I live in San Diego, and a large number of players in my main Survivor Pool pick the Chargers early in the season. A lot of players pick them Week 1 regardless of the matchup (even when they are on the road and underdogs; at least a couple players will pick them regardless). This is part of the reason I love Survivor Pools so much is that some really bad players play in them. Those people that pick their favorite teams in the first couple weeks are normally just forfeiting their entry fee in the prize pool and make up more money for me to earn at the end of the season! That being stated, if you know your team better than the general public and like them in an early-season matchup where others may not be aware of their edge, by all means play them. In Survivor Pools you want to try and go with matchups that the majority of the pool is not on since it is rewarding when a huge portion of your pool is knocked out on one big upset while your pick in an under-the-radar matchup won easily.

3. Ignoring Point Spreads

The first thing I do when I am making my weekly picks is to look at the betting odds. The biggest favorites on the board (especially those favorites that are laying 10 or more points) are going to be the most attractive picks on the board for the week. Remember, don’t treat point spreads as gospel. Bookies set and move the lines in order to best balance their action to assure themselves a profit, and the number is not the number they expect to be the point differential in the game but instead is a number that they think gives them the best chance of balanced action at their sportsbook between the two teams in a matchup. But any successful Survivor Pool player will tell you they are always aware of the lines for the week and that this is one of the main factors they base their picks off of. Similarly, a smaller-than-expected point spread might give you an indication that a team you liked for that particular week might not be as strong of a selection as you originally thought and that there might be an outside factor (injury, suspension) that you were not aware of in that matchup.

2. Telling Opponents Your Picks

Most times your buddies will be playing the same Survivor Pool as you. Guard your picks like freaking Fort Knox. It gives you no advantage if you talk about your picks before the pool deadline to your friends that are also in the pool. If they are smart, especially when the pool is whittled down to a smaller group of players later in the season, friendly banter can become a coup for other players that they can incorporate into their strategy for the week. After the pool is over you can hopefully buy them a beer with your prize money and you can talk about the season at your favorite watering hole, but during the competition they are your competitor and enemy and you should treat them as such. You don’t see Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan having beers and sharing info before a big game, do you?

1. Sending in Duplicate Picks

This seems so obvious, but I guarantee you every decent-sized pool will have multiple people each season that send in a pick for a team that they have already used earlier in the season. It’s a long season and people are busy and sometimes forget. I consider myself a good Survivor Pool player, but I have also made this mistake in the past and thankfully caught myself before I was eliminated. In most pools this mistake will eliminate you automatically. And there is nothing more embarrassing than having to explain to your friends that you were eliminated from the pool for sending in a duplicate.