NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 16 Opening Line Report

NFL favorites went 14-0 straight up in Week 15, and two teams were pick’em on the point spread, so there’s no doubt that if you were still alive in your NFL Survivor Pool that you advanced to Week 16.

This run by favorites, however, has created an interesting situation for Week 16. The Las Vegas bookies got killed last week. The general betting public loves to bet the favorites, and sportsbooks took a huge loss over the weekend. So their response was to pump up the lines this week. This is called “shading” in sports betting circles. On this blog I always tell the readers to use the point spread as more of a guideline than the actual difference between two teams in a particular matchup, and that advice is especially true this week as the sportsbooks protected themselves by shading many of these Week 16 lines.

Normally I go over every favorite or more than three points in my weekly Opening Line Report. However, since most of the big favorites have already been used, I will instead focus on some of these matchups that could still be in play for Survivor Pool players that are still alive and kickin’.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 16

Baltimore -13.5 vs. Indianapolis: I think that this is one of those lines that has been shaded by the bookmakers. That being said, the Ravens are the much better team, and they are on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture so they need to play well and win this game. I have this matchup handicapped at 10 points, so even though the line has been inflated I think this is as good of a play as any for Survivor Pools and the Ravens could be a team that is still available in Survivor Pools.

LA Chargers -6.5 at NY Jets: This is a tricky matchup for the Chargers. They have played great since their slow start, but their loss in Kansas City on Saturday essentially ended their playoff hopes. Could they come out flat here? I think it’s a real possibility. The Jets will start QB Bryce Petty in this one, and that gives the visitors a nice advantage since Petty is extremely raw. But this is the Jets last home game and it’s one of those tricky early starts that West Coast teams generally have a hard time with.

Chicago -6.5 vs. Cleveland: This may be one of the lone options for Survivor Pool players this week. I just hate this matchup for the Bears. The Browns will have their best last chance to avoid a winless season here. The Bears are just a mess as well, and this team can’t be trusted against any club right now. Cleveland has won the last two years in Week 16, and their players should give everything they have in this game. Cleveland plus the points is my top pick for NFL betting this week. I think they have a real chance to pull the upset here.

Washington -3.5 vs. Denver: The Skins were competitive most of the season against the toughest schedule in the league. However, this team seems to have lost that competitiveness and they are playing out the string while the Broncos have been playing better and seem to want to finish the season on a high note. This game is a coin flip, and I am inclined to take the Broncos on the betting line as you get the hook off the key NFL betting number of three.

Arizona -3.5 vs. NY Giants: As far as the small favorites go, I think this is a pretty solid pick. Neither team is any good. But the Cardinals have been competitive lately, and this is their final game at home. They will want to send the fans home happy, and they should do it against a very beatable opponent.